Tag Archives: Bodo

Every constituency has a story – 2014 Assam Elections, a possible tipping point?? – Mangaldoi.


I choose to begin with this constituency for a multiplicity of reasons. It was re-elections into this constituency after the death of MP Hiralal Patowary that brought into prominence the abysmal growth of immigrants of East Bengal origin into Assam and kicked of the Assam agitation. It is an unpredictable constituency, that’s second. But most importantly this constituency would be the closest choice while we look for an Assam in miniature both politically and demographically. Assamese speaking Hindus & Muslims, Immigrant Muslims, Bodos, Tea tribes all mix together is sizeable numbers to decide the result of this constituency. Before we begin an analysis of the constituency, let us have a close look at the results of the yester year elections of the constituent state assemblies of Mangaldoi constituency.

Name of Constituency

2006 Assembly elections

2009 Gen Elections**

2011 Assembly Elections

Kamalpur

INC

BJP

BJP

Rangia

CPI(M)

BJP

INC

Nalbari

AGP

BJP

INC

Panery

BPF

BPF

BPF

Kalaigaon

BPF

BPF

AGP

Sipajhar

INC

INC

INC

Mangaldoi

AGP

AIUDF

INC

Dalgaon

AIUDF

AIUDF

INC

Udalguri

BPF

BPF

BPF

Mazbat

BPF

BPF

BPF

 

**General elections do not declare state assembly constituency wise winners, this is just the majority party in the respective constituency as per number of votes polled.

From 1 assembly seat in 2006 the Congress has come up to 5 seats in 2011. The AGP-BJP combine that fought 2009 elections together have retained the same number put together. With BPF taking 3 of the 3 remaining seats, the AIUDF has been reduced to a zero. If one closely observes the alignment of the Bengali-speaking Muslims towards the Congress party, it is a definite alarm for the BJP to retain this seat. In addition with a clear message in the air that AGP and BJP will fight elections separately one can stop the analysis at this point and state that the seat is going to the Indian National Congress.

But before we stop there are a few points we cannot do away with, the majority Bodo and Muslim population are in a split post the 2008 and 2012 riots with the ABSU stating clearly that they will rally behind a party that supports the cause of the Bodos. It is worth mentioning that BJP was the party at centre that created a separate BTC for the Bodos. It is highly unlikely that both the Bodo and the immigrant Muslim community shall rally behind a similar party i.e the Congress. Also post 2011 elections the AIUDF has started to enter these constituencies with much greater efforts and specially sidelining the congress as a false sympathizer of the Muslims post 2012 riots they have portrayed Badruddin Ajmal as the messiah of all Muslims in Assam. This will definitely cut into the Congress vote base.

Knowing that it is practically impossible for the BPF to win the constituency, a sizeable portion of Bodos might want to choose an indigenous sympathizer and a non Muslim pacifier to be the winning party. Will BJP be able to tap these votes is a question of major concern. The Christian Bodo votes are not coming to the BJP and for obvious reasons. But amongst the Hindu Bodos and particularly in the riot hit areas with the kind of relief operations BJP and its umbrella organizations are involved in there is a good opportunity that lies ahead for them. The number of tea-tribe voters will not exceed beyond few tens of thousands but they do matter. And if BJP sees in them an opportunity knowing that they have been traditional vote banks of the Congress they will need to play the smartest of politics to woo them. With an indigenous plain tribal leader as state president and with a major tea tribe leader leading BJP from the front there is good chance for them to pull sizeable votes from the Bodos and the tea tribes.

BJP cannot expect anything from the Muslim voters be it the Assamese speakers or Bengali speakers minus a few who are not concerned about communal politics and believes only in development. Is this number high enough in Mangaldoi? Certainly not. It is expected that 2014 will see a huge voter turnout and given that the AGP is not in a good shape both Congress and BJP will be giving their best to win the Assamese Hindu voters, Congress with its multiplicity of schemes and BJP with a promise of development. And this is where I begin my final bit of commentary, on the incumbent MP and the works of his.

Ramen Deka was facing a definite weak Congressman in the last elections and his works in the past 5 years have not been really noticeable. This is where I think BJP needs to be a little cautious, with talks of a powerful state minister being pitted from Congress, a RS MP from AGP; BJP will need to decide on each and every clause to choose the right candidate. The AIUDF and BPF cannot certainly win Mangaldoi. If the battle is Ramen Deka vs a Congress stalwart with AGP also in fray then it is a Congress, Congress all the way. If all the equations I posted miraculously falls in favor of BJP with a good candidate, with the PM candidate charisma standing to work then there stands a chance for them to win. In all other probability it will be a congress victory unless AIUDF cuts into its entire Muslim voter base and BPF decides not to contest at all. If AIUDF combines with Congress, we do not even need an election at all.

KMSS and AAP can enjoy the battle but in case they wish to affect the equations, then they can tweak things a bit in favor of the Congress. They certainly cannot make any strong mark

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